The pressure to sharply increase interest rates in 2022 is not great, and at the same time, the room for interest rate reduction has also narrowed significantly.
Enterprises put a lot of expectations on the interest rate support package. Illustration: VNA
The deposit interest rate has bottomed. In the last week of the year, liquidity in the banking market showed signs of stress. According to SSI Securities Company (HM: SSI), the State Bank in the last week net injected 10,540 billion dong on the open market. Credit was also boosted at the end of the year with an estimated VND202,000 billion flowing into the economy. Interest rates on the interbank market had mixed movements, with a sharp increase in short term and decrease for a term of more than 2 weeks.
However, this shortfall is said to be seasonal, as the economy picks up production at the end of the year. However, in 2022, the evolution of bank interest rates is of great interest to many people and businesses to develop business plans for the following year.
In the context that the economy is trying to recover from the pandemic, businesses also expect a reduction in interest rates. In particular, this expectation also comes from the economic recovery support package being discussed by the National Assembly, including many solutions related to the interest rate story such as debt structure, preferential loans or compensation. interest rate.
According to many experts and organizations, interest rates will still have to be kept at an appropriate level to support economic recovery and withstand potential risks from the Covid-19 epidemic, but there is room for further reductions as well. would be very difficult.
In a recent strategic report, Bao Viet Securities Company (HN:BVS) (BVSC) said that it will be difficult for the interest rate level in 2022 to decrease further compared to the end of 2021. Interest rates are likely to increase slightly again. (around 0.25-0.5 percentage points), especially in the second half of 2022.
According to SSI Securities Company, there is no room for a sharp reduction in deposit rates. It is estimated that deposit rates will likely increase by 20-25 basis points in 2022 at large banks, the increase may be higher at banks with less healthy balance sheets. In the medium term, in the context of domestic and international economic recovery, deposit interest rates tend to increase, according to MB Securities Company (MBS (HN:MBS)).
Similarly, in the recent survey report on the business situation in the first quarter of 2022, credit institutions forecast that the interest rate level will be kept stable in the first quarter of this year and may increase slightly again in the coming quarter. end of 2022.
